Projected wRC and Actual wRC

Last night I compared the Pirates projected OPS and wOBA statistics against their actual OPS and wOBA (here). In this update, I transform the projected wOBA statistic into Weighted Runs Created (wRC).

Simply put, wRC tells us how many runs have resulted from what a batter has done at the plate – i.e. how many runs he is responsible for creating. You can find the formula for transforming wOBA into wRC here. I used the actual number of plate appearances for the players represented. This, of course, introduces some error because if the Pirates were hitting better, they would have more plate appearances. However, the difference is so slight that we really don’t have to worry about it. Here are the results:

If the players in this study were producing at exactly their projected wOBA level, the Pirates would have scored an estimated 41 additional runs. (This assumes that the pitchers and and Matt Hague produced exactly as they have.)

The Pirates Record if Offense Producing as Projected?

If the Pirates offense were producing at its projected wOBA level, and the pitching/defense gave up the same number of runs, here is the Pirates estimated Pythagorean record:

If the Pirates hitters were matching their projections, and pitching/defense performed exactly the same, we could expect the Pirates to have the same record as the St. Louis Cardinals.


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One thought on “Projected wRC and Actual wRC

  1. Pingback: Pirates: ZiPS Projected OPS v. Actual OPS | HighandOutside Baseball

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